Chances competition archives   

hosted by Richard Cowan

Problem 1 (from the club's August-September, 2001 Bulletin)

West leads 5 against South's 4S, after the "strong-NT & extended-Stayman" auction (where 2S = 15-16, 4 spades and <4 hearts):

 S

 W

 N

 E
 1NT

 -
  2C

 -
 2S

 -
  4S  

East wins with A, returns 7 and ruffs West's continuation. South overruffs and draws trumps in two rounds. How should South play the hand to make 7 of the last 8 tricks? What is the probability of success using the best line, given the information gleaned from the first 5 tricks?    

   North
KJ74
 J62
 QJT
 AT9

  South
AQT3
 AK3
 84
 K432

Solution available. The competition winner was Tom Goodyer, with another essentially-correct solution from RichardHills/Len Dixon.

Problem 2 (from the club's October-November, 2001 Bulletin)

After the auction 1NT-6NT, marking South with a balanced 15-18 HCP without a 5-card major, South receives the J lead from West, with East following suit in an uniformative way.

Upon enquiry, East tells you that partner would not lead theJ against 6NT unless he also held the 10 and either the 9 or 8.

What is South's best line of play? Using this line, what is the chance of success?

   North
A97
 KJ2
 AJ52
 A86

  South
KT83
 AT95
 K64
 KQ

Solution available.  There was no definitive winner, but Tom Goodyer and Dave Kirkham were close.

Problem 3 (from the club's "December 2001-January 2002"Bulletin)

As a Christmas present, here is easier problem than the tough one in the last issue! West leads a trump against 6C after the "2C-checkback" auction

 S

 N
 1C  1H
 1NT  2C
 3S  6C

which marks South for 14 HCP and the precise 4-3-3-3 shape.
East follows and South wins with the A. On the Q, both follow. Assuming that the last trump is with West, in view of his lead, what is South's best line of play from here? Using this line, what is the chance of success?

   North
AT7
 AKJ8
 K
 KT942

  South
K962
 753
 AT2
 AQJ

The N/S hands come from the recent GNOT Final (except for a slight variation in the spade pips).
Solution available. Again there was no definitive winner, but Margaret Foster, Tom Goodyer, Dave Kirkham, Richard Hills and Gary Lane had lines within a few percent of the best.

Problem 4 (from the club's "February-March, 2002"Bulletin)

West leads the J against South's 2NT contract, bid via the 15-18 1NT-Stayman sequence 1NT-2C <> 2D-2NT.

East wins with the K and leads the 2, whereupon West's A captures the Q. West plays off the 10 and 8 (the suit splitting 4-4 as was predictable from East's 2). Declarer discards in the knowledge of this even spade break. Using standard leads, West exits with the 2.

What is the best line of play for declarer, both with regard to the discards chosen and the continuation? State the chance of success of your chosen line, given the play so far?

   North
97
 AQ73
 JT62
 JT8

  South
Q65
 K4
 A974
 AQ73

Solution available. The winner was Dave Kirkham whilst Margaret Foster, Peter Waight and Peter Jeffery had lines within a few percent of the best.

Problem 5 (from the club's "April-May, 2002" Bulletin)

On these hands, which were dealt in the recent Gold Coast Teams Congress, South plays 4H after the sequence 2C-2D <> 3C-3H <> 4H.

West leads the Q; East wins and returns the Q to West's 7. The opponents overlead from touching honours and play high to encourage.

How should declarer proceed? State the chance of success of your chosen line, given the play so far?

   North
A92
 AQ9
 K
 AKQ953

  South
865
 KT876
 6542
 7

Solution available. The winner was Dave Kirkham, with Peter Jeffery a close second.

Problem 6 (from the club's "June-July, 2002" Bulletin)

This deal from the Surfers Teams has a sting in the tail. South plays 6NT after an auction 1D-2C <> 2NT-6NT. The 2NT bid showed 12-14 and, in our system, denied a 4-card major or a 6-card diamond suit. West leads the 8. East's A wins and he returns the 4 to dummy. West follows with the 9 (showing, with their carding, either 3 or 4 hearts).  

Declarer cannot succeed unless the diamond finesse works, so he leads the 4 to his Q and is relieved when this holds; both defenders follow suit.

How should declarer proceed? Importantly, what is the sting in the tail that I allude to? As a departure from the normal practice of this competition, there is no need to state the chance of success of your chosen line, but this column isn't called Chances for nothing (hint!).

   North
AK4
KQJ
64
AK973

  South
QJ9
T6
AQJT2
Q82

Solution available. There were no winners.

Problem 7 (from the club's "Aug-Sept, 2002" Bulletin). 

West leads  the Q against  South’s 4H contract. With South as dealer, the auction was simple:

1H-2H <> 3C-4H. 

The 3C bid showed a second suit, so North, seeing all of his points useful to partner, bid the game.

How should South play the hand to optimize his chance of making the contract? State the chance of success of your chosen line, given the play so far?

   North
A876
 JT9
 842
 KJ7

  South
5
 AKQ62
 K75
 A643

Solution available. Peter Jeffery's entry wins the prize.

Problem 8 (from the club's "Oct-Nov, 2002" Bulletin). 

 

In the recent Interstate Teams in Hobart, NSW bid (with silent opposition) to a non-vulnerable 6D by the opener, South. The contract made. At the other table, Victoria reached 7D by South and this failed when East turned up with all 4 trumps.

There are, of course, other distributions which defeat 7D. So was Victoria unlucky or was the less ambitious 6D the appropriate contract? Assuming that West would lead (in order of priority)

        (i)        the K from a KQ sequence,
(ii)       the Q from QJ10,
(iii)      a trump from 1-3 trumps, or
(iv)      an uninformative club,

and that neither defender has  a  7- card heart suit which might have tempted him into the auction, find the best line to make 7D and the chance that 7D succeeds with this line. Which was the better bid: NSW’s 6D or Victoria’s 7D?

   North
KJ972
 9
 AKQ32
 AJ

  South
A5
 A653
 T964
 KQ8

Solution available. Dave Kirkham won in a tie-breaking random draw from Peter Jeffery.
 

Problem 9 (from the club's "Dec, 2002 - Jan, 2003" Bulletin).

1.    a) How should one play the trump suit KQ643 opposite dummy’s 1087 for one loser?  (b) What is the best line and by how much does one’s chance decline from (a) if the 7 is used first for ruffing?

2.    In 3NT with other suits well stopped, North has J10732 and South A6, needing 3 tricks in the suit.  How to play when the defence knows that South doesn’t have 3-card support for spades?

3.   (a) How should declarer play K982 (in dummy) opposite A54 for 3 tricks?  (b) What about shuffling the pips: K952 and A84?

4.   How best to play the trump suit – A6 in dummy and Q98542 in hand, for at most one loser?

In each problem, give the best line of play for the objective stated together with the chance of success.  In answering, assume, in the genre of Eric Crowhurst’s analyses in the Bridge Encyclopedia, that side entries are abundant, there is no information on the opponents’ hands and that the defence knows declarer’s objective. 

Solution available.

 

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